Na 10:00 nguva yeBeijing, Mutungamiri weRussia Vladimir Putin akataura kuti akanga afunga kuita basa rinokosha remauto mudunhu reDonbas kumabvazuva kweUkraine.Nenguva isipi, kuputika kwakanzwika munzvimbo yeBoryspil Airport muKiev, guta guru reUkraine, muKyiv, Odessa, Kharkov, Kramatorsk neBerdyansk, zvichiratidza nyika dzeRussia neEurope munharaunda yeEurope.Kusawirirana pakati penyika mbiri idzi kwawedzera nenzira yakakomba.Yese yeUkraine iri muhondo.
Kubva panguva yekutsikisa, mutengo weEuropean gasi webhenji TTF wakakwira kusvika pa114 euros paMWh.Ndeupi rudzi rwekuchinja kwakadzama kuchave nekubuda kwechiitiko cheRussia-Ukraine kunounza kune yakachena simba bhizinesi kumba nekune dzimwe nyika, uye ichaita sei nhanho yekutsiva echinyakare simba mune photovoltaic uye mhepo maindasitiri emagetsi?Parizvino, zvinotarisirwa kuti mitengo yezvigadzirwa zvezvimwe zvigadzirwa zve photovoltaic zvichakwira, uye kudiwa kwemhepo uye solar muEurope nedzimwe nzvimbo kuchawedzera kukurumidza.
Specialty gasi mitengo inogona kukwira, huwandu hwekutakura hwakasimba uye mitengo inoramba yakakwira
Muchokwadi, Ukraine ndiko kunobva magasi akakosha ekugadzira semiconductor yepasirese, saka kuseri kwekunetsana uku kuchakanganisa kushomeka kwemamwe magasi emagetsi anoshandiswa mumasemiconductors.Semiconductor zvigadzirwa zvakakoshawo zvigadzirwa zvephotovoltaic kugadzira zvigadzirwa senge inverters.Pachava nenhevedzano yezviito mune ramangwana here?
Ukraine ine chikamu chepamusoro chemisika ye neon, xenon, uye krypton gasi, uye kukakavara kuchaita kuti dzimwe nzvimbo dzekugadzira gasi dzisashande kana kukuvara.
Vagadziri vakati wandei vanogadzira semiconductor vakati nekuti magasi akasarudzika anowanikwa kubva kunyika zhinji, kusanganisira Ukraine, hapana kushomeka kwezvigadzirwa munguva pfupi.Mukuru weMicron Melotta akataura mubvunzurudzo yakasarudzika neBloomberg News kuti chikamu chegasi rakanaka rinobva kuUkraine, asi yakakura yakagadzirwa, uye zvakanyanya kukosha, kambani ine akawanda masosi ekupa, kusanganisira United States, European Union uye. Asia.Anotenda kuti kambani iri kuenderera mberi nekutarisa mamiriro ezvinhu uye anotarisira kuti zvichareruka.SK Hynix yakaratidzawo kuti yakachengetedza hombe yemagetsi inert magasi, saka hapana chikonzero chekunetseka zvakanyanya.Asi nepo kudiwa kuchigona kuenderana nekupa, hazvidzivirike kuti mamwe magasi akanaka achaona kuwedzera kwemutengo.Mutengo weneon, chigadzirwa, wakakwira mushure mekunetsana pakati peRussia neUkraine muna 2014, apo mutengo waive $3,500 pa cubic mita, zvakapetwa kagumi kupfuura kare.
Nekukwira kuri kuita gakava pakati penyika mbiri idzi, mutengo wegoridhe wakakwira zvakanyanya.Iyo huru yezvigadzirwa zvezvakajairwa sirivheri paste zvigadzirwa zvinoshandiswa musimba rezuva isirivheri poda, iyo yakabatana neLondon sirivheri mutengo.Iko hakuna nhau dzekukwira-kwakakura kwemitengo yesirivheri parizvino.Naizvozvo, munguva pfupi, hapana chiratidzo chemari yekunamatira mitengo inokwira.
Chii chichaita chiitiko cheRussia-Ukraine pakutakura kwemidziyo, kunyanya kune zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi matsva?
Maererano nevacherechedzi veFang, mitengo yekutakura zvinhu mugungwa icharamba yakakwira.Mumakore maviri apfuura, mutengo wakakwira ne4, 5 nguva kana kutopfuura.Kuwedzera kwemitengo yemafuta munguva pfupi yapfuura kunogona kukanganisa kuwedzera kwemutengo wedhiziri, iyo mbishi yekutakura midziyo, asi kunyangwe muridzi wechikepe akawedzera mutengo pane izvi, hazvizokanganisa mutengo uripo wekutakura.Kuwedzera hakuzove nehuwandu hwakawanda.Nekudaro, iyo indekisi yemitengo yekutakura kwemidziyo haizodonha munguva pfupi, huwandu hwese hwekutakura hucharamba huchisimbiswa, uye cheni yekutakura midziyo ichave iri mumamiriro akaoma.Kune rimwe divi, nekuda kweiyo mutant dhizaini yeOmicron, denda munyika zhinji dzeEurope rakaramba richipararira, uye kuunganidzwa kwenyaya dzichangowanikwa dzakachengeta mamiriro ekunze ekunze padanho repamusoro, uye musika wekutumira waive wakanaka kwazvo.Mukupindura njodzi yehondo dzemuno, Europe inogona kuwedzera kuunganidzwa kwezvinhu, nekudaro ichifambisa kudiwa kwese kwema ton-nautical mamaira kuwedzera.Pakati pese, huwandu hwemidziyo huchave hushoma, uye mukana wekutengesa kwemitengo yegungwa hauna kukwirira, uye zvinokwanisika kuchengetedza mamiriro equo kana kuwedzera zvishoma.
Photovoltaic mhepo simba, nezvimwewo, iyo yepasi rose renewable simba shanduko iri kukurumidza
Kutanga kweiyi kutenderera kwehondo yemuno pakati peRussia neUkraine kuchave nemhedzisiro yakanaka mukukwidziridzwa kwesimba idzva kutsiva echinyakare simba.Zuva rose nhasi, mashizha matsva emagetsi akaratidza kuwedzera.Zhongli Group, Sungrow, Trina Solar, Risen Energy, Foster, JinkoSolar, JA Technology, LONGi, GoodWe, Chint Electric, Zhonghuan, uye Jolywood vese vakasimuka pakupera.Iyo PV 50ETF yakawana 1.53%.
Mitengo yegasi yakakwira zvakanyanya munguva pfupi yapfuura.Aya haasi mashoko akanaka kunharaunda yeEurope, uko mitengo yegasi yechisikigo yakakwira zvakapetwa kana mugore rapfuura.Parizvino, chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chegasi rechisikigo muEurope chinobva kugasi rechisikigo, uye geopolitics yakawedzera dambudziko rekupa zvakare.Kubva na4 pm nhasi, Dutch TTF benchmark yeramangwana gasi remangwana mitengo yakakwira yechina inoteedzana chikamu, ichikwira zvakanyanya se41% muzuva rimwe.Mutungamiri weAmerica, VaJoe Biden, vakatiwo vachatora mamwe matanho ekuranga Russia.Chero zvirango zvinotadzisa Russia kuwana mari yekunze zvingasimudzira misika yemafuta, gasi uye zvinhu zvakaita sesimbi nezvirimwa.
Kutsamira kwegasi rechisikigo muEurope kwakakwira zvakanyanya, kunosvika 90%.Naizvozvo, panguva ino apo mutengo wegasi rechisikigo uri kukwira, maindasitiri mazhinji, masimba uye kudziyisa vashandisi vakajaira kushandisa gasi rechisikigo vachatsvaga nzira dzakachengeteka dzekugadzirisa zvavanoda.Kutsiviwa kwemasimba matsva akadai sesimba rezuva kuchakurumidziswa.
Wood Mackenzie akataura kuti nekuwedzera kwekubuda kwemagetsi akasiyana, Europe ine sarudzo ina dzekuenzanisa mashandiro egidhi: pumped hydro, gasi rechisikigo rinokwira simba zvidyarwa.Rory McCarthy, muongorori mukuru wesangano iri, akati, “Kumagadzirirwo emagetsi echizvino-zvino, magasi egasi anogona kuwana magetsi akazara mumaminetsi maviri, uye anogona kushanda pamwe chete nekuwedzera kushanda nesimba uye anogona kupa magetsi kwenguva isingaperi isingaperi yechizvarwa.Nzvimbo yacho igasi remusikirwo risingapindiki.”
Asi panosvika 2030, bhatiri rekuchengetedza simba richabata magasi chaiwo epamusoro senzira yakachipa yekuenzanisa grid yeEurope.Simba rekuchengetedza simba kumativi ose eEurope rinotarisirwa kukura kubva pa3GW iripo ikozvino (kusingabatanidzi pumped hydro) kusvika 26GW ne 2030 uye 89GW ne 2040. McCarthy akacherechedza kuti muna 2040, Europe inogona kuva ne320GWh yesimba rekuchengetedza simba rinowanikwa kuti rienzanise simba remagetsi. .Mazhinji acho achauya kubva mushandisi-parutivi bhatiri simba rekuchengetedza masisitimu."Oiri nemarasha-mari yekugadzira magetsi ichakwirawo, uye net-zero emissions policy inozopedzisira yanangana nedecarbonisation yemagetsi ese masevhisi emusika," McCarthy akadaro.
Imwe nyanzvi inoongorora kambani yeBloomberg New Energy Finance yakamboburitsa mushumo weongororo, uyo wakataura kuti: MuUnited States, sezvo nzvimbo dzekugadzira magetsi ezuva dzichiramba dzichipararira uye dzichidya nguva yekushanda kwemagetsi egasi echisikigo, magasi emagetsi egasi anodiwa kuti atangezve uye kuvhara kakawanda.Izvi zvinowedzera mari yavo yekushandisa nekuda kwezvinodiwa nemafuta uye kupera uye kubvaruka.
Parizvino, kana mutengo wegasi rechisikigo wanyanya kukwirisa, vanoisa mari vanova vakachenjera pakusarudza kuti votsiva here nzira itsva yekugadzira magetsi kudzivirira dambudziko remutengo wepamusoro-soro.
Chokwadika, vatengesi vegasi repanyika vanozengurira kuona izvi zvichienderera mberi.Vachawanawo nzira dzekuita kuti mitengo yegasi iwedzere kuseka, kana zvisina kudaro kutengesa gasi rechisikigo kunze kuchava dambudziko kana mamiriro ekumaindasitiri nekusiiwa kwemagetsi aumbwa.
Kuenzaniswa nedanho rekutanga rekupokana kweRussia-Ukraine muna 2014 (Ndira 19, 2014 kusvika Kurume 20, 2014), mukuita kwemakirasi makuru easset, mitengo yezvinhu yakakwira zvakanyanya, kusvika pa7,6%.Mutengo wemafuta asina kuchena wakakwira ne4,2%, uye mutengo wegoridhe wakakwira ne6.1% (kubva kuHaitong Securities.) Kuenderera mberi kwemutengo wemafuta asina kuchena kuchaitawo kuti kushandiswa kwemagetsi emagetsi, motokari dzakachena, nezvimwewo zvakakosha.
Nezve ramangwana rekuvandudzwa kwesimba idzva, kunyanya photovoltaic industry, gore rino richaramba richivandudza.Musi wa23 Kukadzi, mapato akakodzera akafanotaura kuti ichangobva kuisirwa photovoltaic simba muna 2022 inogona kuwedzera kusvika kupfuura 75GW, iyo inenge 75-90GW.Kukosha uku kunofananidzwa nedata reNational Energy Administration - iyo ichangobva kuisirwa photovoltaic simba renyika muna 2021 ichave inenge 55GW, gore negore kuwedzera kwe36% -64%.Panguva imwecheteyo, inofungidzirwa kuti kubva 2022 kusvika 2025, nyika yangu yegore negore itsva photovoltaic yakaiswa simba ichasvika 83-99GW.Zvinoenderana nedata kubva kubazi reIndasitiri neRuzivo rweTekinoroji, muna 2021, nyika yangu kugadzirwa kwemafotovoltaic epolysilicon, silicon wafers, maseru, uye modules ichasvika mazana mashanu neshanu matani, 505,000 matani, 227GW, 198GW, uye 182GW, zvichiteerana, kusvika 27.5%, 40.6%. 46.9%, uye 46.1% gore negore.Kutengeswa kwegore negore kwezvigadzirwa zve photovoltaic zvakapfuura 28.4 mabhiriyoni emadhora ekuAmerica.
Sekureva kwetsvakiridzo yazvino yeCITIC Construction Investment, iyo yepamba photovoltaic yakaiswa simba muna Ndira 2022 yakapfuura zvaitarisirwa, uye iyo nyowani photovoltaic yakaiswa simba munyika yakapfuura 7GW, gore negore kuwedzera kwe200%.Pakati pavo, iyo ichangobva kuiswa simba ye photovoltaics yakagoverwa yaiva 4.5GW, gore negore kuwedzera kwe250%;iyo ichangobva kuisirwa yepakati photovoltaics yaive 2.5GW, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe150%.Kumusoro kwesilicon zvinhu, mabheti esilicon, mabhatiri epasi, mamodule, pamwe nemainverters uye zvinhu zvekubatsira, zvese zvinongedzo muketani yeindasitiri zvinowanzozara nemirairo, uye mwero wekushanda haudonhe asi unokwira.Yegore rino yechinyakare off-mwaka inogona kunge "isina kusimba".
Kunyora izvi, isu tinovimba kuti vanhu veUkraine vanogona kuzvidzivirira ivo nemhuri dzavo, kushandisa iyi nguva yakakosha zvakachengeteka, uye kudzoka kana kuwana imba ine runyararo nekukurumidza.
Nguva yekutumira: Mar-12-2022